Research Interests
American Politics
A lifelong passion, the study of American political behavior at the local, state, national level serves forms my primary research agenda. I argue that vote choice is best understood as the result of series of proximity calculations along multiple, rank-ordered dimensions. The consequential evaluative dimensions vary both by election and at the individual level, and may include both policy and non-policy elements such as rhetorical style, candidate attributes, and use of populist rhetoric. In line with Schattschneider's conception of democracy as an iterative game of cleavage formation and replacement, the identification of the dominant position and importance structures in a given election serve as the best predictor of both individual vote choice and aggregate outcomes. Where others view socioeconomic status, partisanship, or ideology as the key drivers of electoral behavior, I argue that such factors are mutually constitutive with the operative causal factor: perceived proximity across multiple, key dimensions. This approach allows for the incorporation of factors that were previously relegated to either the error term or externalized entirely from spatial models. Given the rise of populist politics, increasing use of polarizing strategies, and the related reduction in emphasis placed on delivered policy, my research attempts to integrate a broader set of electoral considerations into the vote decision process than previously available.
Political Methodology
My second subfield is the study and application of Political Methodology. I am experienced in both Bayesian and Frequentist applications of linear regression, maximum likelihood estimation, and causal inference approaches. I also employ experimental approaches to isolate causality where appropriate and feasible. I have employed diverse methods in my applied research, from online survey experiments to mediation analysis, difference-in-difference design to fixed effects multi-level regression models. This methodological pluralism is driven by the firm belief that the statistical method used must match the research question under study, with a tendency towards methodological parsimony over complexity for complexity's sake.
Spatial Modeling
At the core of my dissertation and related research is the contention that electoral behavior can be modeled as a function of Euclidean distance across multiple dimensions. The difficulty lies in the identification of the appropriate dimensions and their respective utility functions. I argue that each election contains a unique dimensional structure, including both policy and non-policy components. By identifying the appropriate dimensions, and modeling these accordingly, we can better predict political behavior in democratic elections.
The Electoral Impact of Climate Change
It is always difficult to divine the future, but it appears that political responses to climate change will become a driver of electoral results in the coming decades. It is likely that the tangible impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, water scarcity, crop failures, and desertification, will manifest politically as disagreement over the best approaches towards mitigation and prevention. Measures such as seawalls, carbon capture, and relocations of domestic populations will require large capital expenditures, and it is likely that publics will polarize about who should bear these costs. Moreover, measures such as solar radiation management imply a globally coordinated effort, thus implying a global coordinating body. Disagreements over the governance of such a structure, the power vested within it, and the authority over individual citizens' lives may become significant electoral topics. By predicting the likely cleavages, examining how attitudes regarding these topics are formed, we may be better prepared to suggest tactics more likely to induce compromise along these necessarily contentious dimensions.
Political Psychology
An ongoing, tertiary research focus of mine is the study of individual level, psychological factors on political behaviors. Using elements from Jungian Analysis, Moral Foundations Theory, and the Factor Model of Psychology, I explore the influence of these attributes on political behaviors and objects. I contend that partisanship, the strength thereof, varied resonance to styles of political rhetoric, and reactions to politically salient events are partially the result of these fundamental factors. By better understanding the striated reactions to political and non-political stimuli on the basis of intrinsic psychological attributes, we may better understand political outcomes.
